By Michael Arold
Though stock prices gained slightly in the month of March, the markets recently have been sending out warning signs — for example, small cap stocks have been underperforming their larger peers. Also, copper prices turned sideways and a declining number of stocks participated in the rally.
In the past four years, copper has been a great leading indicator for stocks. So has been market breadth: indices often turned lower after stock participation dropped.
On the other hand, there are also positives. Technically, the S&P 500 established a stable uptrend and short-term declines have been limited so far; buyers have been stepping in on every minor dip. Most important: leading stocks continue to lead. Even a high flyer like Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), which has gained over 60% since last December, acted well in March. As long as these market leaders continue their strong price action, the bull market is fundamentally intact.
On a sector level, prices kept diverging, which is not necessarily a bad sign: financials, technology and consumer discretionary stocks acted very strong, while energy and basic materials demonstrated relative weakness as a result of a stronger dollar and declining demand from China. Read More